Utah and USC gave us quite the show a month and a half ago.
In a game where the two teams combined for 85 points and USC never trailed until Cam Rising’s late-game heroics in the final 48 seconds of the game put the Utes ahead for good, it’ll be hard for the sequel to live up to the hype of the first duel between these top two PAC-12 teams.
However, we might be in for an even better show this Friday at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas for the PAC-12 Championship.
What’s On the Line?
The first game had plenty on the line. The Trojans came into Rice-Eccles Stadium with playoff hopes and an undefeated record to protect.
Utah already had already suffered two frustrating losses and needed a win to keep any hopes of a return to the Rose Bowl alive.
Fittingly, in this matchup, the stakes haven’t changed. Now ranked #4 in the College Football Playoff Rankings, a USC win means the Trojans will make the playoff with a win over the Utes.
Following a Thanksgiving weekend where everything had to go right for Utah to get into the PAC-12 Championship, the Utes can now earn a return trip to Pasadena to represent the conference in the Rose Bowl if they can find a way to beat USC a second time this season.
That won’t be an easy task.
What To Expect From USC
Since losing to Utah, the Trojans have averaged 45.4 points per game while rattling off five-straight wins, including victories over UCLA and Notre Dame.
A significant part of the offensive surge has been due to the play of USC QB and Heisman front-runner Caleb Williams. Over the past five games, Williams has completed 68% of his passes, throwing for 1,741 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Top running back Travis Dye was lost for the season on November 11th, but senior RB Austin Jones has been a revelation in his place, running for 120 yards against UCLA and 154 yards against Notre Dame in his two starts since Dye went down.
As good as the offense has been, the Trojan defense has continued to struggle, allowing 32.2 points per game since giving up 43 points to Utah on October 15th.
What to Expect from Utah
Since beating USC, the Utes haven’t seemed quite right, and it may be due to injuries. Following the bye week, both Rising and TE Dalton Kincaid, the offensive stars in the win over the Trojans, had to sit out against Washington State due to injury.
Rising returned the following week against Arizona but seemed to be a shell of his former self. In his first three games returning from injury, the typically accurate leader of the Utes offense only completed 56% of his passes and missed several critical throws in the loss to Oregon.
His accuracy appeared to return last week against Colorado, where he completed 90% of his passes and threw for 234 yards in just a half of play, but that improvement may have been more about the opponent than the player.
Kincaid, who leads all Utah receivers with 850 yards, and had 234 yards against USC in the last matchup, returned against Stanford and looked great against Oregon and Colorado but left the last game due to another injury. His status for the conference championship is now up in the air, which would be a major hit to the Utes offense.
Thankfully for Utah, the defense has improved over the past five games, only allowing 17 points per game. However, injuries have also recently struck that side of the ball for the Utes, where they’ve lost both starting defensive ends, Van Fillinger and Jonah Elliss, over the past two games. Neither is expected to play Friday.
What to Expect in This Matchup
USC nearly beat Utah in the first matchup, and they did so through the air. Williams threw for 381 yards and 5 touchdowns, and both Mario Williams and Jordan Addison eclipsed over 100 yards receiving.
The Utes were able to put pressure on Williams, sacking him 4 times, but with both Fillinger and Elliss out, it’s difficult to believe that Utah can repeat that in the sequel. Much will depend on the performance of backup tight ends Gabe Reid and Connor O’Toole.
While the Utes have been solid against the rush, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Trojans take advantage of the loss of Fillinger and Elliss and pound the ball with Jones, especially considering how well Jones has performed over the past three games.
Even if Kincaid can return, he won’t be 100%, so the Utes will also have to find new ways to move the ball down the field. RB Ja’Quinden Jackson looked solid since RB Tavion Thomas declared for the NFL draft, but Utah will need several skill players to step up to fill in for Kincaid’s production.
Much of this second matchup seems to be in USC’s favor. The Trojans clinched a conference championship berth one week prior to the Utes, so Trojan fans got a head start on purchasing tickets for the game. While the game site is neutral, there will likely be 2 USC fans for every Ute fan at the game.
Utah also has more questions going into the game. How healthy are Rising and Kincaid? Can the defense succeed without Fillinger and Elliss? Was the offensive outburst last week against Colorado a return to form or just due to the Buffaloes historically awful defense?
On the other hand, USC has given up a lot of points over the past few games, and narrowly escaped upsets against Arizona, California, and UCLA. Can the Utes take advantage?
With so many more questions facing Utah than USC, it’s difficult to select the Utes to win this one.
Straight Up Utes Prediction: USC 38 Utah 35
Straight Up Utes 